The oversupply equation

With Canadian operators holding huge shares and having scaled up manufacturing capability over the previous yr resulting from improved home costs and elevated export demand, the mix of expanded manufacturing and potential demand contraction has raised issues about world oversupply.

“As world producers proceed to scale up whereas main import markets face potential near-term constraints on progress, oversupply is more likely to develop into a standard theme within the coming yr,” mentioned Lawrence Purkiss, Senior Analyst at Prohibition Companions.

Supply: Statistics Canada, Prohibition Companions 2025

Khourdaji recognized Thailand as a brand new drive getting into the worldwide medical hashish provide chain in 2026. 

“The nation advantages from plentiful assets, a super local weather for cultivation, and low working prices,” he mentioned. “The market can be witnessing quite a lot of cultivators producing for medical exports. Collectively, these elements place Thailand as a possible main participant within the world hashish market.”

The way forward for flower 

Ben Stevens, Editor of Enterprise of Hashish, notes that whereas uncooked flower stays king, 2026 might see its dominance start to wane. 

“As we proceed to see a tightening of restrictions on medical hashish frameworks all through Europe, loads of the adverse consideration is now being positioned on flower as a class,” he mentioned. 

“Within the UK, merchandise transplanted instantly from the North American adult-use markets into the non-public medical market are already drawing concern from regulators over their names and branding. Equally, in Germany, Drug Commissioner Hendrik Streek just lately steered that banning flowers could possibly be a route the federal government thought of in its medical hashish pushback. In the meantime, rising markets like France and Spain are launching with out flower provided in any respect.”

Stevens suggests these dynamics will drive better curiosity in various product codecs. Purkiss delves additional, suggesting France’s non-flower, pharmaceutically-focused plans might act as a brand new template for future reform.

“The launch of France’s new medical hashish manufacturing and remedy construction has the potential to supply another template for international locations trying to set up medical hashish frameworks inside their healthcare techniques,” he mentioned. 

“The French mannequin is extra built-in into the present pharmaceutical manufacturing and scientific remedy panorama within the nation than is the case in different massive affected person markets. It stays to be seen how rapidly home manufacturing partnerships can create merchandise that are acceptable for sufferers, medical doctors and regulators.”

Intoxicating hemp’s unsure future

Within the US, the intoxicating hemp market dominated the headlines in 2025, and offered a significant risk to established medical and leisure companies, involved that these low-cost and largely unregulated merchandise would cannibalise their market dominance.

With a brand new federal ban handed on the finish of the yr, Stevens believes intoxicating hemp will proceed to be a key coverage subject within the coming months. 

“Whereas it’s inconceivable to foretell what is going to occur within the sector, an space I’m positive will proceed to drive headlines is intoxicating hemp,” he mentioned. 

“The US ban, not set to return into drive till late 2026, might but be amended. In idea, this $30bn gray market would merely disappear in a single day. In actuality, hundreds of producers, importers, buyers and shoppers will now be searching for a brand new dwelling.”

“Given the relative ease with which these semi-synthetic cannabinoids might be created, the rising variety of Delta-9 THC alternate options, and the sluggish tempo of efficient laws, I consider the genie is out of the bottle.”

UK: Regular progress, persistent gaps

Sarah Sinclair, Editor of Hashish Well being, expects continued however measured enlargement within the UK market.

“Affected person numbers will proceed to develop steadily within the UK, and we’ll see extra clinicians expressing curiosity in medical hashish, however prescriber numbers will stay low in comparison with demand,” Sinclair mentioned.

As with Germany and Australia, she expects some incoming regulatory pushback, although similar to the UK’s comparative progress, extra muted. 

“Whereas we await the findings of the ACMD assessment, I feel we’ll see elevated engagement from UK regulators such because the CQC and the Common Pharmaceutical Council with the sector, because it faces better scrutiny in step with rising affected person numbers.”

Sinclair additionally highlighted rising authorized challenges round affected person entry. “As entry expands, authorized circumstances associated to drug-driving offences and employment tribunals may also develop into extra prevalent, and it’ll develop into tougher for policymakers to disregard main gaps associated to CBPMs, significantly in relation to driving and office drug-testing. How employers ought to handle this, and the way to precisely measure impairment, will develop into an more and more essential a part of the dialog, with some skilled our bodies within the occupational well being area, for instance, at the moment reported to be reviewing their pointers.”

On product improvement, Sinclair added: “I hope to see extra R&D centered on ladies and ladies’s health-related circumstances, with extra supply codecs developed that meet their wants and preferences. Nonetheless, I don’t see something main altering by way of the rising demand for high-potency flower till extra product codecs develop into broadly obtainable.”

Advertising’s medical flip

The sector’s positioning and communications methods are set to proceed evolving away from life-style branding towards medical framing, based on Michael Hoban, Head of Advertising & Communications at Prohibition Companions.

“Because the hashish business continues to mature at pace, advertising budgets will face heightened scrutiny all through 2026,” Hoban famous. 

“Maximising ROI has develop into a central precedence for business leaders and entrepreneurs alike, changing the normal ‘use it or lose it’ strategy that after dominated budgeting cycles. In the present day, each pound or greenback spent have to be supported by clear, measurable outcomes, making demonstrable ROI not simply fascinating—however important for strategic decision-making and accelerated progress.”

He additionally expects the medical positioning to speed up in tandem. “As extra European international locations broaden medical hashish programmes and affected person entry, the market will proceed to lean extra towards drugs and wellness, quite than life-style/leisure. Though this lean is already underway, subsequent yr there’ll be much more room for advertising to shift—from various drugs to a part of standardised healthcare, strengthened by the most recent scientific proof, affected person case research, and prescriber training.”

As markets mature, Hoban believes narrative will play an rising function in hashish advertising. 

“Placing individuals and their tales entrance and heart creates a degree of authenticity that really resonates with audiences. By showcasing growers, sufferers, innovators, and group advocates, marketeers can spotlight the actual voices shaping the business and construct deeper emotional connections with their viewers. These highly effective narratives don’t simply humanise a model—they place a model as a thought chief, elevating it far past being simply one other product on the shelf or one other ancillary service.”

Rob Dale, Digital Advertising Exective at Prohibition Companions, famous that search behaviour displays this medical shift. 

“In 2026 Hashish advertising and content material will proceed to maneuver away from the ‘stoner’ content material additional in direction of science-based content material,” Dale mentioned.

“Seek for informal phrases equivalent to ‘weed’ and ‘marijuana’ lower, while ‘delta-9 THC’, ‘THCa’ and ‘CBN’ have seen large progress and proceed to develop into extra standard.”

Dale additionally highlighted the impression of AI-powered search instruments on business content material technique. “AI search will smash many manufacturers who stick to the informal web optimization technique of dispensary close to me or just answering questions with no authority,” he mentioned. 

“With the introduction of AI search ‘About half of messages (49%) are “Asking,” a rising and extremely rated class that exhibits individuals worth ChatGPT most as an advisor quite than just for process completion.’ Most individuals are utilizing this to ask questions and acquire insights which implies web optimization technique will probably be to create proprietary information and have knowledgeable log off.”